The Gaza Ceasefire

After two years of catastrophic war in Gaza, the guns are finally—maybe—falling silent.This week, Trump announced what he’s calling a historic ceasefire between Israel and Hamas: a 20-point plan featuring hostage exchanges, Israeli withdrawals from parts of Gaza, and an “international peace board” led by Trump himself and Tony Blair. Yes, that Tony Blair.If it holds, it will be the first sustained pause in fighting since 2023. But as we break down in this episode, almost every piece of the deal looks fragile. Israel’s cabinet barely approved it. Hamas has no intention of disarming. And the details of who actually governs Gaza—Arab peacekeepers, Israeli forces, or the Trump-Blair board—are a blur.Beneath the headlines lies a deeper question: what comes next?* If Hamas keeps its weapons, Israel won’t withdraw.* If Israel stays, the fighting resumes.* If Gaza falls under an “international mandate,” whose interests will it serve?Even if the ceasefire holds, both hosts argue the long-term political picture is grim. Israel’s leadership and population seem uninterested in a viable peace process. The Palestinian factions are divided and decimated. And the United States—the only power capable of imposing a real settlement (maybe)—appears unwilling to try.As Galen puts it, “This isn’t a peace deal. It’s a timeout.” This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit globaltantrum.substack.com