The Hydrogen Hurdle: Costs, Policy and Progress

Hydrogen was once the golden child of the energy transition. Yet high costs and limited policy support proved high hurdles for the technology’s progress, global deployment has fallen well short of expectations. Forecasts now project around 5.5 million tons of production by 2030 – half of what was expected just a few years ago and far below industry and government ambitions. Of course, as with all things energy transition, the story gets more complicated the closer you look. The US is betting on blue hydrogen even as it turns away from many clean technologies, China is driving ahead with green, and India is emerging as a low-cost producer. And around the world, hydrogen is gradually gaining a foothold in hard-to-abate sectors like shipping and aviation, where the fuel could play a transformative role. On today’s show, Kobad Bhavnagri is joined by BloombergNEF’s head of hydrogen research, Martin Tengler, to discuss some of his team’s recent work, including “Hydrogen Supply Outlook 2025: Blue Takes the Lead” and “Ammonia Supply Outlook 2025: Tenders Shape Demand.” Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF<GO> on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com Links to research notes from this episode: Hydrogen Supply Outlook 2025: Blue Takes the Lead - https://www.bnef.com/insights/37489?context=eyJ0eXBlIjoiaW5zaWdodCIsInNvcnQiOiJkYXRlIiwicmVnaW9uIjpbXSwic2VjdG9yIjpbXSwiYXV0aG9yIjpbIjQwMjc3Il0sImluc2lnaHQtdHlwZSI6W119 Ammonia Supply Outlook 2025: Tenders Shape Demand - https://www.bnef.com/insights/37457?context=eyJ0eXBlIjoiaW5zaWdodCIsInNvcnQiOiJkYXRlIiwicmVnaW9uIjpbXSwic2VjdG9yIjpbXSwiYXV0aG9yIjpbIjQwMjc3Il0sImluc2lnaHQtdHlwZSI6W119