The Inflation Paradox: Low Numbers, High Checkout Bills

This week, Monika breaks down the “inflation paradox” India is living through — where official inflation has collapsed to 0.25%, yet households still feel the pinch at checkout counters. She explains how the headline number hides a deeper story: if the impact of gold is removed from the Consumer Price Index, October inflation actually turns negative. An SBI Research estimate suggests that, excluding gold, inflation could remain below zero for the next two months. Food prices have fallen sharply, with vegetables down nearly 28% and pulses over 16%, creating a painful situation for farmers even as households see temporary relief.Monika unpacks why very low inflation is a problem for the wider economy. Weak prices signal weak demand, hurting production, wages and eventually jobs. Governments too suffer when inflation falls, because tax revenues depend on nominal — not real — growth. With the RBI’s full-year inflation estimate cut to 2.6%, the number now threatens to breach the lower bound of the 2–6% target band, raising the possibility of rate cuts. She also explains why lived inflation can feel higher than official data: lifestyle choices — app-based shopping, food delivery, eating out — inflate household budgets far more than the CPI basket. For savers and investors, a lower-trend inflation world means lower bank FD rates and more moderate long-term equity return expectations, making equity allocation essential for retirement planning.In listener questions, Srinivas seeks guidance on managing a large education loan, bundled insurance policies, and family assets; Sampath from the US weighs whether to buy property in Hyderabad now or after returning to India; and an anonymous listener asks how to secure term insurance after a past cancer diagnosis. Monika also gives a shout-out to Rinku Jain, who recently shifted from trading to financial education after being inspired by Let’s Talk Money.Chapters:(00:00 – 00:00) The Inflation Paradox: Why Low Numbers Still Feel Expensive(00:00 – 00:00) How Low Inflation Impacts Growth, Wages, Taxes & Your Investments(00:00 – 00:00) How to Fix a Costly Loan, Bundled Insurance & a Risky Family Portfolio(00:00 – 00:00) Should NRIs Buy Property Now or After Returning to India?(00:00 – 00:00) Can Cancer Survivors Get Term Insurance? What Your Real Options Arehttps://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/ivlio9duh6yemspbdu6rm/Inflation-SBI-Report-Oct-2025.pdf?rlkey=n6fyqfssoz5tw88unhsx0sn3a&dl=0https://www.stcipd.com/UserFiles/File/Measuring_Trend_inflation_in_India-A_summary.pdfIf you have financial questions that you’d like answers for, please email us at ⁠[email protected]⁠ Monika’s book on basic money management⁠⁠⁠https://www.monikahalan.com/lets-talk-money-english/⁠⁠⁠Monika’s book on mutual funds⁠⁠https://www.monikahalan.com/lets-talk-mutual-funds/⁠⁠Monika’s workbook on recording your financial life⁠⁠⁠https://www.monikahalan.com/lets-talk-legacy/⁠⁠⁠Calculators⁠⁠⁠https://investor.sebi.gov.in/calculators/index.html⁠⁠⁠You can find Monika on her social media @monikahalan. Twitter ⁠⁠⁠@MonikaHalan⁠⁠⁠Instagram ⁠⁠⁠@MonikaHalan⁠⁠⁠Facebook ⁠⁠⁠@MonikaHalan⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn ⁠⁠@MonikaHalan⁠⁠Production House: ⁠⁠www.inoutcreatives.com⁠⁠Production Assistant:⁠⁠ Anshika Gogoi⁠⁠