The Iran War: Week Three

Three weeks into the Iran war and there are no good options left on the table. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, oil is spiking, the Gulf monarchies are being blasted, Lebanon’s on fire. A disaster of truly global proportions looms.The strategic picture has shifted. Trump asked NATO and even China for help reopening the strait and got a flat no. A new Foreign Affairs analysis makes the case that air power alone won’t cut it — clearing the waterway would require boots on the ground along Iran’s coastline, and no one is signing up for that mission. Yet.Inside Iran, the picture is murkier than ever. Israeli strikes have taken out key figures, including Ali Larijani, one of the few pragmatists with a track record of negotiating with the West. The smart bombs are still falling, the regime is under pressure, and the people who might have been partners for an eventual off-ramp are disappearing from the board.Welcoming once again Prof. Andrew Leber (who has a new article out for the Carnegie Endowment) to the show, we break down the three big questions driving the conflict — who controls Iran, what happens in the Strait, and whether the US can protect its allies — and why the JCPOA crowd is feeling pretty vindicated right about now. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit globaltantrum.substack.com