The Iran War: Week Two

The U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Ayatollah Khamenei on February 28th were supposed to be the decisive blow. Instead, two weeks later, Iran has a new Supreme Leader, Khamenei’s son Mojtaba, installed by the Revolutionary Guards, the Strait of Hormuz is closed, and roughly 10-15% percent of global oil is off the market. The IEA just authorized the largest emergency stockpile release in history. The old boss is gone, but the regime is still standing.This was supposed to be the Trump doctrine at work: overwhelming force, maximum leverage, quick resolution. But Iran did its homework. The regime prepared for exactly this scenario with decentralized command, asymmetric responses, and the one card that changes everything: choking off the world’s most critical energy chokepoint.Israel is escalating on its own, hitting oil facilities around Tehran and turning the sky black. The White House isn’t thrilled. Meanwhile, the race is on. The simultaneous dumping of 400 million barrels of strategic reserves sounds like a lot until you realize global consumption will burn through that in a matter of weeks. Futures markets are betting the Strait reopens soon. If they’re wrong, we’re in for a very different kind of crisis.We discuss whether Iran’s new leadership can hold together, why air power alone has never broken a determined regime, what Israel’s unilateral strikes mean for the coalition, and whether the economic clock runs out before the military one does. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit globaltantrum.substack.com