The Israel-Iran Conflict's Implications for U.S. Export Controls

Mike and Brent follow-up on Mike’s being quoted in Dow Jones Risk Journal regarding the unexpected export control consequences of the Israel-Iran conflict. They discuss the geopolitical context (00:39), the article by Richard Vanderford and Mengqi Sun (01:22), the risk that Iran tries to evade U.S. export controls (and sanctions) by procuring replacement parts and equipment through third-party intermediaries (02:12), the cautionary tale of an Alabama resident sentenced to five years in U.S. federal prison for diverting items to Iran (03:29), the need to be cognizant of “catch-all” U.S. export controls related to ballistic missiles and WMD programs (including nuclear) and those controls reliance on the full definition of “knowledge” to include “an awareness of a high probability” (04:42), increased tracking and investigative activity by the U.S. government (06:19), how companies need to think about responding to “red flags” (06:45), the likely impact of forensic review of battlefield recoveries on requests by Israel and NGOs to companies for assistance in tracing item or component flows to Iran (07:44), and the likelihood of increased, rather than decreased, activity by U.S. agencies as a result of the conflict (09:52). They conclude with another segment of Brent Carlson’s “Managing Up” (12:26).The Dow Jones Risk Journal article (June 13, 2025) (subscription req.): https://article.dowjones.com/djriskjournal/articles/israel-attack-could-bring-new-business-risks-even-if-not-followed-by-more-sanctions-9f0dab93?mod=risk-compliance_feat1_dow-jones-risk-journal_pos4&_gl=1*eca83t*_gcl_au*OTM2NjQxODc2LjE3NDI1ODkxNDI.*_ga*MTQ0NTg1NTk4LjE3NDI1ODkxNDI.*_ga_K2H7B9JRSS*czE3NTAyMTQ5MjgkbzMxJGcxJHQxNzUwMjE0OTQ4JGo0MCRsMSRoNTM5NTk0NjQxThe Wall Street Journal Morning Risk Report (June 16, 2025): https://createsend.com/t/d-3CAD0099A1F7C65A2540EF23F30FEDEDMore about Brent: https://www.linkedin.com/in/brent-carlson-41ba692/More about Mike: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mhuneke/Brent & Mike’s “Fresh Looks” Series: www.hugheshubbard.com/fresh-looks