The Manufacturing Recession Signal Hidden in Factory Orders

Lucas and Luna dig into a recession indicator that doesn't get as much attention as the yield curve or jobless claims: factory orders ex-transportation. With the S&P 500 hitting new highs and the VIX below 17, it's easy to ignore the manufacturing side of the economy. But new data from the Census Bureau shows core capital goods orders have declined in three of the last four months, and the Institute for Supply Management's new orders index has been contractionary for eight straight months. Lucas explains why this matters — and why the stock market's calm might be masking real weakness in industrial production. Luna pushes back on whether this is just a manufacturing recession or a broader signal. They also discuss the role of the Iran conflict and energy costs in distorting the headline numbers. A focused, data-driven look at one of the quieter recession signals the market is ignoring. #FactoryOrders #ManufacturingRecession #ISMIndex #CoreCapitalGoods #IndustrialProduction #RecessionSignals #EconomicIndicators #SupplyChain #EnergyCosts #IranConflict #CensusBureau #DurableGoods #BusinessInvestment #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #RecessionWatch #Economics #SlowdownSignals Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo