The Market Split In Half: The Numbers Don't Lie | EP 55

The September 1 VREF value revision is live—and the numbers tell a very different story than the broad “strong market” or “weak market” headlines.Business jet transaction volume is down nearly 19% year to date, essentially returning to 2020 COVID-era levels.But prices didn’t simply fall with volume.They split.Across 658 business jet model years revised by VREF:421 moved down.230 moved up.7 stayed flat.And the dividing line isn’t simply light, midsize, or heavy.It’s increasingly about which generation of aircraft you own.In this episode:Why business jet transaction volume has round-tripped to roughly COVID-era levelsLight jet volume down approximately 18%, midsize down 25.5%, and heavy down 13%Why Jason’s 2026 sequence—volume first, days on market second, price last—has now played outHow legacy midsize values fell roughly 5.1%, with 122 out of 122 model years moving lowerWhy current-production super mids moved the opposite direction, rising about 4.1%How current-production large-cabin flagships gained nearly 7% while prior-generation large-cabin aircraft declinedWhy the market is effectively repricing obsolescenceHow the “age penalty” is shrinking for some large-cabin aircraft while growing for older light and legacy midsize jetsWhy a 15-year-old Global can appreciate while a similarly aged Citation or Hawker loses valueHow two aircraft both labeled “midsize” can be moving almost nine percentage points apartWhy broad weight-class averages can describe an airplane that doesn’t actually existWhat rising days on market and weaker transaction volume reveal about the buyer-seller standoffWhy midsize is becoming the canary in business aviation’s coal mineHow fractional ownership, charter growth, financing sensitivity, and corporate caution may be permanently removing some buyers from whole-aircraft ownershipWhat the September revision means for sellers, buyers, lenders, insurers, and fleet plannersFor sellers of legacy aircraft, the conversation has changed. Buyers are no longer negotiating only against opinion—the published values are beginning to move to their side of the table.At the top of the market, the opposite is happening. OEM backlogs and limited availability are pushing buyers toward current-production and late-model aircraft—and they’re paying for the privilege.That means the old question— “How’s the market?”—is becoming almost useless.The better question is:“What is happening to my model, my generation, and my model year?”Because as of September 1, there is no single aircraft market.There are winners.There are losers.And the gap between them is getting wider.For the latest aircraft values, historical trends, operating costs, fleet data, and transaction-based market intelligence, visit VREF.com.The market doesn’t care what you paid. It only cares what it’s worth.And as of September 1, it changed its mind about a lot of airplanes.Fly safe. Stay smart.