The Market the Tweets Can’t Break | What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next

Subscribe to the OPEX Effect on Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠Subscribe to the OPEX Effect on Apple PodcastsThis episode of The Opex Effect breaks down why markets have remained surprisingly resilient despite geopolitical chaos, an oil shock, and extreme headline risk. Brent Kochuba joins Jack Forehand to analyze what’s really driving the market beneath the surface—from options flows and gamma positioning to the collapse in volatility and what it signals for the next move.They explore how the options market is shaping price action in ways most investors miss, why the VIX collapsed despite elevated risk, and what positioning tells us about the path forward as we head into earnings and the next major options expiration.Topics covered:Why markets have stayed near highs despite war, oil spikes, and macro uncertaintyThe “taco trade” and why investors expect bad news to reverse quicklyHow options flows and dealer hedging are influencing stock pricesWhy call options are historically cheap heading into earningsThe mechanics of gamma, delta hedging, and market maker positioningWhy options expiration (OpEx) can act as a turning point for marketsThe divergence between oil prices and equity volatilityWhat the collapse in the VIX reveals about investor positioningThe role of zero-DTE options in reinforcing short-term market rangesKey resistance levels forming from call selling and what they mean for upsideTimestamps:00:00 Why markets aren’t reacting to geopolitical chaos04:18 The “taco trade” and shifting market expectations07:30 How options flows influence stock market movements11:10 Why OpEx can drive market turning points13:05 Volatility compression and the gamma-volatility relationship15:30 How large options positioning shapes market behavior18:05 Why positioning has shifted toward calls20:00 Why this OpEx may be less impactful than prior ones22:00 Market positioning into earnings and key drivers ahead24:10 Using gamma maps to identify support and resistance27:00 Revisiting the JP Morgan collar trade and March lows30:00 Correlation spikes and the oil-volatility relationship33:00 Why oil has stopped driving equity volatility34:30 The breakdown between oil and VIX correlation36:00 Why volatility may reprice higher after OpEx37:05 The oil curve and expectations for a short-term shock39:40 One of the largest VIX collapses ever41:00 How options positioning drove the volatility unwind43:00 Why selling volatility has become a dominant strategy45:00 The feedback loop between rising markets and falling volatilityFor more information on SpotGamma and Brent’s work:https://spotgamma.comFollow Brent on Twitter:https://twitter.com/spotgamma