The Michael Oliver Interview

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit vblgoldfix.substack.comGood morning. As promised this is the Michael Oliver interview. Since recording this on Sunday at approximately 3:00 PM gold has rallied $35 for Monday and thus far an additional $30 for Tuesday morning please enjoy this -VBL[L]ooking out to, let's say, Tuesday or Wednesday. If you get gold even back up toward $2,900, ….and silver—You get it up about a percent above where it closed Friday—[They’re] going to break out over a similar structure, meaning momentum says, hey, you had your correction.- M.O.Topic Outline* Introduction and Opening Remarks* Michael Oliver’s Background and Career Path* Development and Methodology of Momentum Structural Analysis* Current Market Analysis and Observations* Sector-Specific Analysis: Stocks and Financials* Analysis of Gold Miners (XAU Index)* Examination of T-Bonds and TLT* Macro Perspectives and the Role of Government Liquidity* Alternative Assets and Cryptocurrencies* Closing Remarks and Q&A Highlights* Contact Info* BIO: About Michael* Site: Michael Oliver’s MSA Technicals Extended Outline (use attached transcript for keyword search)* Introduction and Opening Remarks* Vince Lanci welcomes Michael Oliver* Brief introduction of Michael Oliver’s reputation and background* Mention of Michael’s firm, Momentum Structural Analysis (MSA)* Context: addressing both familiar subscribers and newcomers* Michael Oliver’s Background and Career Path* Early Career* Hired in 1975 by E.F. Hutton in New York* Apprenticeship under David Johnston (chairman of COMEX)* Learning basic technical analysis (hand-drawn charts, trend lines)* Transition to Futures Brokerage and MSA* Moving from Hutton headquarters to field offices as a futures broker* Starting Momentum Structural Analysis in 1992* Evolution from simple price charts to momentum-based techniques* Development and Methodology of Momentum Structural Analysis* Concept and Technique* Oscillating price relative to moving averages (using the average as a “zero line”)* Creating oscillators that offer a different visual picture than standard price charts* Identifying structures (floors, ceilings, breakouts) on momentum charts ahead of price* Application Across Asset Classes* Stocks, commodities, debt, and foreign exchange* Historical case studies (e.g., the 1987 market action, Bunker Hunt era in silver)* Current Market Analysis and Observations* Stock Market Technicals and Bubbles* Analysis of indices (NASDAQ 100, S&P) using momentum trends* Criticism of banks’ price targets on gold and their repeated revisions* Discussion on the infusion of “free money” and its impact on market bubbles* Gold’s Momentum and Price Corrections* Explanation of “benign corrections” (e.g., a 4.3% drop) in gold* Use of daily momentum oscillators to gauge short-term pullbacks* Concept of V-shaped bottoms where momentum recovers faster than price* Sector-Specific Analysis: Stocks and Financials* Momentum Structures in Stocks* Evaluating long-term trend metrics (e.g., price vs. three-year averages)* Identifying when price action lags behind momentum indicators* Financial Stocks (e.g., XLF) and Related Technicals* Discussion on structural vulnerabilities in financials* The influence of T-bond rallies and potential government interventions* Comparisons with historical rate cuts and market responses* Analysis of Gold Miners (XAU Index)* Understanding the XAU Index* Definition: Philadelphia Gold and Silver Miners Index (different from bullion)* Historical range of XAU relative to gold (support levels around 17.5% to 35%)* Recent Developments and Technical Insights* Breakdown of the XAU spread in 2008–2009 and its recovery post-2015* Current readings showing improvement relative to gold* Downtrend structures and projections for an upside assault toward historical resistance* Examination of T-Bonds and TLT* Recent Trends in T-Bonds* Analysis of TLT (ETF for long-term T-Bonds) price action* Observation of basing action and high yields despite temporary rallies* Outlook and Limitations* Expectations for a temporary rally fueled by money flowing from stocks* Warning that any T-bond rally is likely a countertrend move* Macro Perspectives and the Role of Government Liquidity* The Fed Put and Market Bubbles* Historical examples: 2001 rate cuts, 2007–2008 crisis interventions* Discussion on how bubbles break regardless of government liquidity* Shift in Policy Focus* Observation that the “Fed put” has moved from stocks to bonds* Implications of global credit/debt bubbles and potential market corrections* Alternative Assets and Cryptocurrencies* Bitcoin and Ethereum Analysis* Comparison of Bitcoin’s recent high and momentum decline* Discussion of potential bubble dynamics in Bitcoin* Observations on the overlapping behavior between Bitcoin and indices like the NASDAQ 100* Closing Remarks and Q&A Highlights* Summarizing Key Technical Insights* Emphasis on long-term momentum trends over short-term fluctuations* The importance of understanding market “structures” in various assets* Investor Guidance* Discussion on tactical versus strategic moves (e.g., swing trading vs. long-term holds)* Final thoughts on how differing asset classes (gold, miners, stocks, bonds) interact during market cycles* Contact Information and Further Engagement* Mention of Michael Oliver’s website (olivermsa.com) for further details and reports* BIO: About Michael* Site: Michael Oliver’s MSA Technicals* Social Media: MSA on X.com