The Minnesota Primary 2018 Update

A look within the Democratic primary for Governor suggests a very close race on Tuesday as voters are split among the top candidates. State AttorneyGeneral Lori Swanson is at 29% and Rep. Tim Walz is at 28%. Former state House Majority leader/Emily list endorsed Erin Murphy is statistical tied with the two at 19%, and 24% are undecided/other.On the Republican side, former Gov TimPawlenty has a slight advantage over Jeff Johnson for the nomination 43% to 34% with 23% undecided. (n=156, +/8%). Driving the Pawlenty vote are independent voters in the Republican primary breaking for Pawlenty 66% to 13%, while Republican affiliated voters are breaking slightly for Johnson, 39% to 38%.It appears at this time that whomever the Democrats and Republicans nominate, Democrats will start with a slight lead. In hypothetical ballot tests Swanson leads Pawlenty 44% to 36% (21% undecided) while Walz leads Pawlenty 44% to 33% (23% undecided). The race tightens if Johnson wins the GOP nomination; against Swanson he trails 37% to 32% (31% Swanson he trails 37% to 32% (31% undecided) and against Walz, Johnson trails 40% to 33%, with 27% undecided.President DJ Trump’s approval rating is lower in Minnesota than his national numbers with a 35% approval compared with his RCP average of 43%. Trump’s disapproval is about the same as his national numbers at 51%. Driving down Trump's popularity appears to be his recent tariffs, which 49% of Minnesotans think are bad for the state; 18% think the tariffs are good. Emerson University Poll