The New Reality of Market Cycles & Lending Strategy with Gil Figueroa Part 1 #955

In this episode of The Norris Group Real Estate Podcast, Bruce Norris sits down with Gil Figueroa, President of First Commercial Capital, for Part 1 of a deep dive into commercial real estate, market cycles, and lending strategy in today’s higher-rate environment. Gil breaks down how interest rates, the 10-year Treasury, cap rates, and investor psychology all interact to influence real estate valuations and decision-making. The discussion also explores lessons from the 2007–2008 financial crisis, the risks of loose underwriting, and why disciplined lending standards are critical in navigating today’s market. Together, they examine how affordability pressures, refinancing challenges, and lender behavior are shaping both risks and opportunities across commercial real estate.Gil Figueroa is the President of First Commercial Capital, where he specializes in the origination, underwriting, and closing of multifamily and commercial real estate loans. With over three decades of experience as a licensed real estate broker since 1993, Gil brings deep expertise in apartment lending, commercial real estate finance, and complex loan structuring. He also works closely with high-net-worth clients as a financial analyst and wealth strategist, helping align real estate investments with long-term financial and retirement goals. In addition, Gil is a seasoned speaker with extensive experience presenting at industry conferences and wealth seminars, known for delivering clear, practical insights to investors and professionals.In this episode: Bruce welcomes Gil Figueroa, President of First Commercial Capital.  Gil shares his 30+ years of experience in commercial and multifamily lending.  Bruce explains how a unique VA property deal led him to study real estate cycles.  Why interest rates alone don’t determine housing prices.  How the 10-year Treasury helps forecast market direction.  The role of human behavior (fear and greed) in market cycles.  Gil discusses Elliott Wave analysis and its impact on his forecasting.  Lessons from the 2007–2008 housing crash and risky lending practices.  Why Gil exited residential lending and shifted to commercial real estate.  Key differences between residential and commercial loan structures.  How rising interest rates impact cap rates and property valuations.  Why affordability is shaping today’s real estate market.  The “lock-in effect” of low mortgage rates on homeowners.  Overview of commercial loan types and refinancing challenges.  Why some investors avoided long-term fixed loans before rates increased.  The “extend and pretend” strategy lenders are using today.  Emerging distressed opportunities in select real estate markets. The Norris Group originates and services loans in California and Florida under California DRE License 01219911, Florida Mortgage Lender License 1577, and NMLS License 1623669. For more information on hard money lending, go to www.thenorrisgroup.com and click the Hard Money tab.Video LinkRadio Show