The Next Bear Market

This week's blogpost - https://bahnsen.co/42ccBWB In this week's Thoughts on Money, Trevor, Blaine, and Brett discuss Blaine's article, “The Next Bear Market,” which argues that a 20% market decline will happen at some point and that recent, fast recoveries (COVID, 2022, 2023 bank failures, and a short-lived 2025 ~19% drawdown) may be breeding investor complacency. They distinguish corrections (10%) from bear markets (20%), highlight how intra-year drawdowns often fade in annual returns, and emphasize the market’s interconnected participants, leverage-driven selling, and the expectation that the Fed will intervene. The group focuses on preparing through adequate liquidity and safety nets to avoid selling at the wrong time, understanding why you own assets, and emphasizing dividends and income as part of total return. They note risk surveys can misstate real behavior, advisors act as guides to help clients endure volatility, and premium returns require accepting volatility as the price of admission. 00:00 Podcast Intro 00:30 Why Bear Markets Happen 03:05 Drawdowns vs Annual Returns 05:02 Statement Pain Explained 07:19 Too Big to Fail Mindset 10:17 Complacency After Long Runs 18:40 Corrections vs Bear Markets 20:37 Risk Tolerance Reality Check 23:04 Long Horizon Portfolio Buckets 24:15 Focus on Dividends Not Price 25:47 Dividends And Total Return 26:22 Safety Nets And Inflation 27:31 Bear Markets And Labels 28:57 Recession Versus Bear 29:37 Markets Versus Economy 30:40 Why Cash Reserves Matter 32:51 Leverage And Forced Selling 34:24 Liquidity And Buyer Shortages 35:24 Life Transitions And Risk 37:00 Advisor Psychology And Coaching 40:38 Guides Expand Risk Tolerance 41:42 Portfolio Rules Of Thumb 43:38 Volatility Price Of Returns 45:32 Time Horizon Is The Edge 46:35 Wrap Up And Disclosures Links mentioned in this episode: http://thoughtsonmoney.com http://thebahnsengroup.com