The Numbers Don’t Lie

Since the 1992 Rio Earth Summit, when the world first committed to tackling climate change, carbon emissions have continued to rise every year with just two exceptions: the 2009 global financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic.In both cases, emissions fell only because of wrenching economic dislocation. And while much has been said about the energy transition, the numbers tell a more stubborn story. Little has changed in how much fossil fuel we burn. What has changed is where.According to the Statistical Review of World Energy 2024, global primary energy consumption rose by two percent in 2023, reaching yet another all-time high. Fossil fuels still supplied 81.5 percent of the world’s primary energy — barely down from 81.9 percent the year before.Coal production hit a record high, and China consumed 56 percent of it. [p. 5, SRWE 2024]But that was 2023. This year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) revised the figure upward. In its Global Energy Review 2025, the IEA reported that China consumed 58 percent of the world’s coal in 2024 — another record. Despite huge investments in wind, solar, hydro, nuclear, and gas, China’s surging electricity demand drove coal use up by 1.2 percent. IEA 2025, p. 6 – PDF linkIn 2023, coal supplied 60 percent of China’s electricity. Wind and solar contributed just over 15 percent — well below the combined share of hydro and nuclear. When it comes to China’s total primary energy, fossil fuels accounted for 82 percent, with coal, oil, and gas dwarfing wind and solar, which together delivered barely five percent. Put another way: for every unit of primary energy China got from wind and solar, it got sixteen from fossil fuels.Renewables decorate the China story, fossil fuels power it.🛢️ Fishing For PowerYet there is a near constant mismatch between energy headlines and energy realities. Every year, record-breaking capacity additions in wind and solar dominate the news. But “capacity” is not the same as generation.In 2023, the world added 346 gigawatts of solar and 115 gigawatts of wind capacity — historic numbers. But these generators are off more often than they are on. Solar panels typically operate at 10–25 percent of their installed capacity, and wind averages around 35 percent. In contrast, fossil fuel plants often run at 50–90 percent capacity factors. [SRWE 2024, “Capacity vs Generation” section]A better term for wind and solar is "energy gatherers." Like casting a net for fish, you get what nature gives.When it comes to global electricity generation, coal still leads at 35 percent, followed by gas at 23 percent. Oil accounts for about two percent. Wind, solar, and hydro combined now provide 30 percent, but wind and solar together make up less than half of that — under 15 percent. [SRWE 2024, Electricity Generation data]But electricity is only part of the energy story. When looking at total energy — including transport, heating, and industrial use — wind and solar account for just 8.2 percent of primary energy consumption. Nuclear contributes 4 percent, and hydro 6.4 percent.Fossil fuels remain the backbone of the global energy system.🌍 Emissions Keep ClimbingBoth reviews confirm that energy-related greenhouse gas emissions reached a new record in 2023. The Statistical Review of World Energy reports a 2.1 percent increase, pushing total emissions over 40 gigatonnes for the first time. The IEA’s 2025 Global Energy Review echoed this trend, attributing it in part to China’s record coal consumption“China now consumes nearly 40% more coal than the rest of the world combined,” the IEA wrote. “This drove global coal demand to a new high.” [IEA 2025, p. 6]The rule of thumb? Ignore the words. Follow the fuel. Judge nations by their actions, not their press releases.⚠️ Conclusion: This Is Not a Transition — It’s an AdditionFossil fuels haven’t been replaced — they’ve been joined by unreliable newcomers. Weather-dependent energy needs constant backup from hydrocarbons to keep the grid stable, or to take over entirely when the sun doesn’t shine and the wind doesn’t blow. Coal, oil and gas still carry the weight of the world. What we call decarbonisation is, in many cases, just offshoring. Industrial production and emissions haven’t disappeared — they’ve been exported, then reimported as goods made in coal-fired economies like China and India.Activists in developed countries may cheer the closure of coal plants and the rise of wind and solar, but the overall effect is marginal. Fossil fuels are simply being displaced geographically, not phased out.We’ve made enormous noise, spent trillions, and passed countless laws. But emissions are up. Coal is up. And the share of energy provided by oil, gas, and coal remains almost unchanged after 30 years of climate summits.The rhetoric changed. The reality didn’t. So, what do you call a movement that promises transformation but delivers the status quo? A performance. Not a transition. And the costliest illusion in history.See the full story here.Powerlines is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a subscriber. It’s free — though donations are welcome. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.powerlines.au