The Odds of a Monkey Writing Shakespeare Are Worse Than You Think

What are the actual odds that a monkey could randomly type Shakespeare?The Infinite Monkey Theorem is one of the most famous thought experiments in mathematics and probability theory. It’s often repeated as a quirky idea about monkeys, typewriters, and infinite time — but rarely explained in a way that makes the math, the scale, or the implications truly sink in.In this episode of Smartest Year Ever, Gordy breaks down what the theorem really says, where it came from, and why phrases like “probability one” can be deeply misleading outside of mathematics. Using clear examples, exponential probability, and real-world constraints like the age of the universe, this episode explores the gap between mathematical certainty and physical reality.Along the way, Gordy examines why infinity overwhelms improbability on paper, but not in practice — and what that tells us about randomness, meaning, and the limits of thought experiments when they collide with physics.This episode also looks at real attempts to test the idea, including famous monkey typing experiments, computer simulations, and why randomness alone doesn’t create meaning without structure, selection, or intent.If you’ve ever wondered how probability theory works, why infinity breaks intuition, or whether “eventually” actually means anything in the real universe — this episode is for you.Music thanks to Zapsplat.#probabilitytheory #mathexplained #mathfacts #learnonSpotify #educationalfun #scienceexplained SourcesBorel, É. (1913). La mécanique statique et l’irréversibilité. Journal de Physique Théorique et Appliquée.Borel, É. (1914). Le hasard. Paris: Félix Alcan.Feller, W. (1968). An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications (Vol. 1, 3rd ed.). New York: John Wiley & Sons.Diaconis, P., & Skyrms, B. (2018). Ten Great Ideas About Chance. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Hájek, A. (2023). Interpretations of Probability. In E. N. Zalta (Ed.), The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy.Borges, J. L. (1941). The Library of Babel. In Ficciones.Epicurus. (3rd century BCE). Letter to Herodotus.Cicero. (1st century BCE). De Natura Deorum.Aristotle. (4th century BCE). Physics.Aristotle. (4th century BCE). Metaphysics.Kittel, C., & Kroemer, H. (1980). Thermal Physics (2nd ed.). New York: W. H. Freeman.Adam, D. (2003, May 9). Give six monkeys a computer, and what do you get? Certainly not the Bard. The Guardian.Monkeys Don’t Write Shakespeare. (2003, May 9). Wired.Acocella, J. (2007). The Typing Life. The New Yorker.NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. (n.d.). Then vs. Now: The Age of the Universe.