The Overconfidence Problem: Why Knowing More Can Make You Less Accurate

Research reveals a troubling pattern among experts: more information increases confidence but not accuracy. In one striking study, giving subjects more information about a case raised their confidence from 33% to 53%, while their accuracy stayed below 30%. This episode explores overconfidence bias—the most common cognitive bias affecting professionals across medicine, law, finance, and management—and asks why more knowledge can paradoxically lead us further from the truth. This episode was generated with AI assistance.