The Post-COVID Boom Is DEAD: Why Q2 Is Forcing Aviation Back To Reality | EP 38

In this episode of The Truth About the Market, Jason breaks down the Q2 2026 market numbers and explains why the aircraft market has fully unwound from the extraordinary conditions of 2021 and 2022.In this episode, we cover:Why April 2026 transaction volume is one of the weakest April readings of the last decadeHow current closings compare to 2025, 2024, and the extraordinary post-COVID market of 2022Why transaction volume tells more truth than listings, asking prices, or scraped internet dataWhy the post-COVID market has fully unwoundHow buyers have become more disciplined and less willing to chase aircraft just because inventory existsWhy capital markets are underwriting risk againHow lenders are scrutinizing assets more closely before approving dealsWhy light jets remain resilient even as transaction volume pulls backHow light jets are benefiting from buyers moving away from twin turboprops and twin piston aircraftWhy efficient lift still matters in a more disciplined marketWhy elevated asking prices in light jets do not tell the whole storyWhy the super midsize market deserves serious attentionHow super midsize aircraft have seen some of the most meaningful pricing pressure in the marketWhy super mids sit at the intersection of financing sensitivity, affordability, and capital disciplineWhy large cabin aircraft remain highly selective due to narrower buyer pools and enormous capital commitmentsHow turboprops remain strong utility aircraft, even as inventory rises and selling cycles lengthenWhy piston aircraft remain historically strong, even as transaction activity softensHow total business jet and turboprop inventory has recovered from post-COVID lows but remains below pre-pandemic levelsWhy today’s market is defined by slower transactions, selective buyers, longer decision cycles, and disciplined capitalWhy aircraft no longer sell simply because they existWhy buyers are evaluating maintenance exposure, residual value risk, and mission fit more carefullyWhy social media narratives around “off-market aircraft” often exaggerate scarcityWhy many so-called off-market opportunities are really just manufactured exclusivityHow cash buyers are gaining leverage as lenders require larger down paymentsWhy some aircraft now require 25, 30, or even 40 percent downHow the Iran conflict and fuel shock are changing operating assumptionsWhy fuel prices may become one of the defining aviation topics of 2026How higher fuel, parts, logistics, maintenance, training, and charter costs compound across ownershipWhy operating economics are now central to aircraft acquisition decisionsWhy aircraft values are returning to traditional depreciation curves in many categoriesHow legacy aircraft, Hawkers, CJ-series aircraft, and older vintage categories continue facing pressureWhy current production aircraft from Gulfstream, Bombardier, and Embraer remain comparatively strongWhy the piston market continues to hold up better than many expectWhy summer seasonality could deepen the slowdown into Q3For accurate, defensible aircraft valuations trusted by lenders, insurers, and aviation professionals worldwide, subscribe to VREF Online.Fly safe. Stay smart.