The power law: how a handful of hundred-million-dollar exits generate most VC fund returns episode artwork

EPISODE · Aug 31, 2026 · 12 MIN

The power law: how a handful of hundred-million-dollar exits generate most VC fund returns

from Onpode

Venture capital returns follow a power law distribution, meaning a disproportionately small fraction of portfolio investments generate the vast majority of a fund's total returns. Empirical evidence suggests that roughly 5–15% of investments in a typical fund account for most of its gains, while approximately 75% of venture-backed companies never return cash to investors.

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The power law: how a handful of hundred-million-dollar exits generate most VC fund returns

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