The PPI Surprise That Reshapes the Recession Debate

In this episode of Recession Watch, Lucas and Luna dig into the May 2026 PPI report that came in much hotter than expected, with wholesale prices surging 1.1% month-over-month driven by energy costs. They explore what this means for the recession outlook, especially as the ECB just raised rates for the first time since 2023 in response to Iran-war-driven energy inflation. Lucas points to the tension between sticky inflation and a softening labor market, using the latest jobless claims data (229,000) and the still-inverted yield curve to frame a complex picture. The hosts also discuss whether the Fed can afford to cut rates if supply-side shocks keep pushing prices up, and what history says about stagflationary environments. A focused, data-rich conversation for anyone trying to read the economic tea leaves in mid-2026. #PPI #WholesalePrices #Inflation #ECB #IranWar #EnergyPrices #RecessionWatch #FederalReserve #Stagflation #JoblessClaims #YieldCurve #SupplyShock #May2026 #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #LucasAndLuna #Macro Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo