The Probability Desk - 2026-06-05: The Hot-Jobs Trap - Will Warsh’s Fed Cut at All in 2026?

After a hot May jobs report - 172,000 jobs vs an ~80,000 consensus, unemployment steady at 4.3% - does the Fed cut at all in 2026? The Probability Desk weights the US rate regime through year-end: base case Sticky Plateau (hold all year) 50%, Immaculate Easing 25%, a Stagflation tail 15%, and a Hard Landing tail 10% - netting roughly 60% odds of no cut this year, against a market still pricing easing. Built from historical pause-to-cut base rates, market and house-view priors, and a 50,000-path Monte Carlo. Editorial scenario analysis only - not investment, actuarial, or geopolitical advice. Read the full scenario report: https://www.universalassetowners.com/the-probability-desk-2026-06-05/