The Probability Desk — 2026-06-15: Will the Hormuz Reopening Hold?

The US and Iran have announced a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with a signing expected Friday. Markets are pricing resolution; the Desk is more cautious — this is the second reopening in four months, and April's collapsed in a week. We weight it base 50 / upside 15 / tail 35, run 60,000 simulated paths, and explain why the outcome is a switch, not a dial — and what a long-horizon owner should do about it. Editorial scenario analysis only; not investment advice. Full scenario report and sources: https://www.universalassetowners.com