The Probability of Possibility | 9 to FI 034 | 9 to FI Podcast

Josh Recaps a Two-Week Las Vegas Trip as Josh and Elliot Discuss FIRE Spending, the 4% Rule, and ACA Subsidy CliffsJosh and Elliot record an off-the-cuff episode to keep their weekly podcast goal, with Josh recapping a two-week Las Vegas trip focused on concerts (Def Leppard and two long 311 sets), hiking, and other entertainment rather than heavy gambling, though a brief roulette/blackjack run with his son ended in losing winnings. Josh notes dining out cost nearly $2,000 over two weeks for a group that sometimes totaled five people, prompting broader FIRE discussions about tracking true annual spending, budgeting “guardrails,” and sequence-of-returns risk. Josh shares that early 2026 expense tracking suggests $80–90K annual spend rather than a guessed $60K, affecting reliance on the 4% rule. They discuss withdrawal cadence, investor policy statements, 72(t) vs Roth conversion ladders, and Josh’s concern about ACA subsidy cliffs around ~$84K MAGI given rental income and tax-deferred assets. Elliot updates on planning a France move, uncertain timing, remote-work approval, and whether to sell or rent their house.00:00 Back From Vegas00:56 Concerts And Hiking03:16 Roulette And Blackjack06:04 Trip Costs Reality Check09:07 Tracking Spending Guardrails14:26 Market Drops And Mindset21:31 Withdrawal Strategy Talk29:32 ACA Subsidy Cliff37:19 Drawdown Options Complexity40:24 France Move Update43:12 Sell Or Rent The House47:10 Wrap Up And ThanksDo you have feedback or suggestions? We want to hear from you!Contact Elliot: [email protected] Josh: [email protected] of these products help the show. Thanks for your support!Mint Mobile - We both use ⁠Mint Mobile⁠ and save a ton on our phone plan: ⁠https://fbuy.me/vgAmz⁠⁠Empower⁠ is Josh’s choice for Net Worth and BudgetingWanna create a podcast? We use ⁠Descript⁠Looking for a new credit card?  We’re big fans of ⁠Chase⁠⁠Buy Us a Coffee⁠ - One time donation or monthly, it’s up to youWant to save money on gas? Try ⁠Upside!⁠Books mentioned in this episode:Come find us and subscribe on YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/@9toFI