The Problems Of Probabilities | Prediction & Gambling In The Future

from Mere Mortals Conversations · host Kyrin Down & Juan Granados

After a year of gambling I am none the wiser of understanding probabilities.In Episode #523 of 'Meanderings', Juan & I discuss: probabilities/gambling/arbitrage, how my brother first found ways to exploit betting promotions, using sports betting apps in conjunction with Polymarket, how markets set probabilities, whether AI will become genuinely better than humans at predicting future outcomes, complexity making exact prediction almost impossible and the future of livestreaming and personal data. Stan Link: https://stan.store/meremortalsTimeline:(00:00:00) Intro(00:02:33) How betting promotions can tilt the odds(00:05:52) Getting gubbed and the limits of beating bookies(00:07:28) Casino systems, card counting and roulette stories(00:12:29) Polymarket, lay bets and online arbitrage appeal(00:15:17) Bots, algorithmic trading and speed advantages(00:20:56) A human edge in clunky betting markets(00:23:04) Probability confusion and betting both sides(00:27:36) How do you build probabilities from scratch(00:35:52) Weather, complexity and what probability really means(00:43:58) Can AI actually predict the future(00:54:30) Why the betting edge disappears over time(00:57:15) Live data, streaming and future tech habits(01:03:26) AI music, data ownership and universal compute(01:09:04) Human judgement, long bets and future projects(01:15:22) Podcast updates, yoga training and closing notes  Connect with Mere Mortals:Website: https://www.meremortalspodcasts.com/Discord: https://discord.gg/K99e8fysBnTwitter/X: https://twitter.com/meremortalspodsInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/meremortalspodcasts/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@meremortalspodcastsValue 4 Value Support:V4V: https://www.meremortalspodcasts.com/supportPaypal: https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/meremortalspodcast

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This episode was published on June 21, 2026.

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