The Profits Come Now. The Costs Come Later. Kevin Muir on Whether AI Earnings Are the Bubble

Kevin Muir of The MacroTourist joins Matt Zeigler to break down the bond market, Scott Bessent's Treasury buybacks, the Treasury General Account, AI-driven earnings growth, leveraged ETF risk, gold and the U.S.-Canada trade fight. Kevin explains why rising long-term yields may be less surprising than investors think, how the AI capex boom can inflate earnings before costs show up, and why leveraged ETFs and policy uncertainty could make markets more fragile.Kevin Muir on Xhttps://x.com/kevinmuirThe MacroTouristhttps://themacrotourist.comTopics coveredWhy stronger nominal GDP, large fiscal deficits and record corporate issuance are pressuring long-term Treasury yieldsHow Scott Bessent's Treasury liquidity buybacks work and why investors are comparing them with QE and Operation TwistHow replacing long-dated Treasuries with T-bills could ultimately force reserve management purchases by the Federal ReserveWhy the Treasury General Account matters for liquidity and why attempts to manage the yield curve can distort market signalsJim Chanos's "earnings bubble" argument and how massive AI data-center capex can boost current earnings while costs are amortizedWhy stock prices can fall before forward earnings estimates roll over, and why retail investors may have an advantage over institutionsHow daily-reset leveraged ETFs create reflexive buying and selling and could amplify a semiconductor or single-stock selloffWhy Kevin is bullish on gold again, the role of People's Bank of China demand, and how he combines fundamentals with technical signalsWhy platinum below production cost caught his attention and what rolling mini-bubbles in gold, silver and AI say about investor psychologyWhat 2025 U.S.-Canada trade data says about autos, oil and gas, manufacturing, tariffs and the economic cost of policy uncertaintyTimestamps00:00 Intro06:31 Scott Bessent's Treasury buybacks and the bond market10:39 How T-bill issuance could lead to debt monetization18:25 The AI capex boom and the "earnings bubble"22:27 The giant bet embedded in accelerating AI earnings27:37 Why leveraged ETFs are changing market structure32:00 How forced ETF unwinds can amplify a selloff36:41 Why Kevin is bullish on gold again41:57 Platinum, production costs and the precious metals trade46:08 Sentiment extremes and why popular trades get dangerous51:00 Globalization, manufacturing and America's distribution problem55:00 Why oil and gas dominate the U.S.-Canada trade deficit59:00 How tariff uncertainty can deter U.S. manufacturing investment01:03:10 The trade math Kevin wants investors to seeLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.