“The Quadrillion-Dollar Disagreement on AI and the Economy” by Anton Shenk

In the three years since OpenAI launched ChatGPT, economists and AI researchers have published forecasts projecting that, over the next decade, AI will add to annual growth by amounts ranging from as little as 0.1% to as much as 30%. By 2035, the gap between these forecasts nears a quadrillion dollars: an amount that exceeds a decade's worth of current global output. The Quadrillion-Dollar Delta Projected US GDP Under Alternative AI Growth Estimates, 2026-2035Source: 2025 Q4 US GDP from Federal Reserve Economic Data. Estimates sourced from Goldman Sachs (2023), McKinsey (2023), Acemoglu (2024), OECD (2024), Korinek & Suh (2024), Arnon (2025), Cowen (2025), Clark (2025), and Epoch AI (2025). Not all estimates model US GDP directly: Epoch AI models Gross World Product; McKinsey models productivity across 47 countries; Korinek & Suh calibrate to advanced-economy baselines. Growth rates from these sources are applied to the US GDP baseline for comparability. Where ranges are reported, the median is used. Where excess growth is reported rather than levels, a baseline 2% GDP growth is assumed. Skeptical forecasts describe a future world barely different from today's: one with modest productivity gains and manageable labor-market adjustments, all governed with incremental policy tweaks. Other forecasts [...] ---Outline:(03:11) Question 1: Which Jobs Can AI Actually Automate?(04:19) The Skeptical Case: AI Faces a Hard Tasks Wall(07:07) The Explosive Case: Difficult Tasks Can Be Surmounted(09:25) Question 2: Can the Economy Absorb What AI Companies Produce?(10:13) The Skeptical Case: Institutions Are Stickier Than Markets(11:49) The Explosive Case: Markets Fund What Works(13:55) Question 3: Can AI Automate Innovation Itself?(14:12) The Skeptical Case: AI Will Provide a One-Time Economic Boost(15:27) The Explosive Case: AI Will Produce Ideas(19:13) Indicators to Resolve These Questions --- First published: May 11th, 2026 Source: https://aifrontiersmedia.substack.com/p/the-quadrillion-dollar-disagreement --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.