The Recession Signal Hidden in Corporate Capital Expenditure

Lucas and Luna break down why corporate capital expenditure plans are flashing a subtle recession warning that most GDP-based models miss. With the latest data showing spending on equipment and structures growing at its slowest pace in three years outside of a pandemic or financial crisis, the hosts examine what this means for productivity, earnings, and the labor market. Lucas explains the link between CapEx cuts and the Fed's inflation fight, noting that energy inflation is hitting capital-intensive industries hardest. Luna brings in the JOLTS data showing job openings falling below 7 million, connecting the dots between companies pausing investment and the tightening labor market. The episode includes a listener-supported segment about keeping the show ad-free. #CorporateCapEx #RecessionWarning #EconomicIndicators #CapitalExpenditure #ProductivitySlowdown #FedPolicy #InflationFight #EnergyInflation #JOLTS #LaborMarket #BusinessInvestment #EquipmentSpending #GDPGrowth #SoftLanding #ManufacturingSlowdown #RecessionWatch #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo