The Recession Signal Hidden in Small Business Optimism

On this episode of Recession Watch, Lucas and Luna examine the small business optimism index from the National Federation of Independent Business, which just dropped to its lowest level since 2013. They discuss how the gap between what large corporations report and what Main Street feels has widened to a historic spread, and why that divergence may be the most telling recession signal right now. With the yield curve no longer inverted but the VIX still elevated, Lucas argues that the small business data cut through the noise. Luna brings a counterpoint: is optimism simply a lagging indicator? They dig into the numbers, including the NFIB uncertainty index hitting a record high, and what it means for hiring and capex plans. No generic recession talk here — just a specific, data-driven look at one of the most consistent leading indicators. #SmallBusiness #NFIB #RecessionSignal #LeadingIndicators #OptimismIndex #MainStreet #Uncertainty #Capex #HiringPlans #EconomicSlowdown #YieldCurve #VIX #BusinessCycle #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #RecessionWatch #June2026 Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo