EPISODE · Jun 3, 2026 · 7 MIN
The Recession Signal Hidden in the VIX Term Structure
from Recession Watch with Fexingo: Economic Cycles, Indicators, and What Slowdowns Mean · host Fexingo
Episode 29 of Recession Watch with Fexingo dives into the VIX term structure — a recession indicator that gets less attention than the yield curve but has a strong track record. Lucas and Luna examine why the VIX at 16.31 and the VVIX at 91.23 are telling different stories about market fear, how the contango in VIX futures suggests investors see near-term calm but longer-term risk, and what this signal says about the odds of a recession in the second half of 2026. They compare the current VIX curve to patterns before past recessions and discuss why the VVIX — the 'volatility of volatility' — may be flashing a warning the VIX itself isn't. Specific, data-driven, and practical for anyone watching the macro landscape. #VIX #VVIX #Volatility #RecessionIndicator #VIXTermStructure #Contango #Backwardation #MarketFear #EconomicCycles #RecessionWatch #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #Macro #Investing #RiskManagement #StockMarket #LucasAndLuna Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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The Recession Signal Hidden in the VIX Term Structure
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