The Recession Signal Hidden in Vendor Performance

Most recession watchers track unemployment, manufacturing PMI, or the yield curve. But there's a lesser-known leading indicator buried in the Institute for Supply Management's monthly reports: the vendor deliveries index. When suppliers slow down — and lead times stretch — it often signals that demand is overheating, not contracting. In this episode, Lucas and Luna dissect the ISM vendor deliveries data, compare it to the current economic backdrop, and explain why a slowing delivery index might actually be a bullish signal in mid-2026. With real GDP growth at just 1.6 percent, a 4.3 percent unemployment rate, and the 10-year Treasury at 4.45 percent, they explore whether vendor performance is flashing a false alarm or a genuine recession preview. #RecessionWatch #Economics #ISM #VendorDeliveries #SupplyChain #LeadingIndicators #Manufacturing #GDP #Unemployment #TreasuryYields #BusinessCycle #Inflation #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #LucasAndLuna #EconomicIndicators #Slowdown #PodcastEpisode Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo