The Recession Signal Hidden in Wholesale Prices and Energy Costs

In this episode of Recession Watch, Lucas and Luna break down the surprising May PPI surge of 1.1% — more than double expectations — driven by a spike in energy costs linked to the Iran conflict. They explore how wholesale price pressures can foreshadow consumer inflation, margin compression, and ultimately a recession. With real GDP growth at just 1.6% annually and the yield curve still inverted but flattening, the hosts assess whether this is a temporary energy shock or a structural threat. They also reference the ECB's first rate hike since 2023 and the UK's unexpected GDP contraction, connecting global developments to the US recession debate. If you want to understand why input costs matter more than headline CPI for the economic outlook, this episode delivers. No hot takes, just data-driven conversation. #WholesalePrices #PPI #EnergyCosts #IranConflict #ECBRateHike #UKGDP #RecessionWatch #Inflation #YieldCurve #GDPGrowth #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicIndicators #SupplyChain #CentralBanks #CostPushInflation #MacroEconomics Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo