The Researcher Who's Been Right About Political Violence Just Sounded The Alarm

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit michaelfanone.substack.comI’ve heard “most important election of our lifetime” so many times it barely registers anymore.It’s become a slogan. A fundraising line. Something people say every four years while they keep doing the same half-measures and hoping the country magically cools off.But Robert Pape, a University of Chicago professor who has advised every White House since 2001 and has spent his career studying political violence — said we’re heading into the most dangerous election of our lifetimes. And he’s not saying it because he’s trying to get booked on cable. He’s saying it because he’s been running national surveys for years measuring how many Americans think political violence is acceptable… and what kind of violence they mean.I lived January 6th. I was in the tunnel. I got dragged into a mob. I got tased. I remember thinking, in a very real way, that I might not make it out. So when somebody shows up with actual data that says this is getting worse — I pay attention. Because I know what it looks like when the line breaks.You don’t need half the country to be violent to destabilize a democracy. You need a motivated minority that believes violence is justified. Even when the number is “only” in the teens, you’re talking about millions of people. And once you ask what “force” means, you start hearing things that should chill you — not protests, not shouting, but assassination, armed confrontation, intimidation. That’s when you stop pretending this is just “polarization.”One of the most important parts of Pape’s work is also the part that scares me most: the stereotype is wrong. We like to imagine political violence comes from the margins — loners, unemployed, disconnected people with nothing to lose. That’s comforting because it puts the threat far away from our lives.But January 6th didn’t look like that. And the data doesn’t either. A lot of those defendants weren’t outsiders. They were people with jobs, businesses, families, lives. People who believed they were defending something they were about to lose — status, power, identity — and they’d been told by influential voices that violence was the way to stop the change.That means the threat isn’t always some guy in the woods. It can live in suburbs. In workplaces. In communities that look normal on the outside. And if you don’t want to deal with that reality, fine — but that’s how you get blindsided again.Now let me be crystal clear about where I stand: I don’t rationalize political violence. Not from anyone. Not for any reason. The men who came for us on January 6th believed they were the good guys too. That’s the point. The second you start carving out exceptions — “well, our violence is different” — you’re already halfway down the same road. The line has to hold, every time, for everyone.Pape’s research also shows something I still believe in: most Americans don’t want this. A big majority rejects political violence. The problem is, that majority keeps staying quiet while the worst people in the room get louder.Being quiet doesn’t stop an escalation cycle. Being quiet becomes permission.So yes — part of the answer is people using their voices, pressuring leaders to condemn violence without caveats, calling it out in their own circles, refusing to normalize threats as just “politics.” Leadership matters. Words matter. Public condemnation can move the needle.But I’m not buying any fantasy about Trump being the guy who helps heal this.The simplest short-term answer is the only one that actually matters: vote like you understand what’s happening. Vote in 2026. Vote in 2028. Vote in every race where the choice is between democracy as a process and politics as warfare. Because the people who profit off intimidation don’t get tired. They don’t sit out. They show up.If you’re part of the majority that doesn’t want violence to become normal in this country, act like it. Because Pape’s warning isn’t panic. It’s a receipt. And I’m not interested in living through another January 6th while everyone pretends they “never saw it coming.”🟧 Paid subscribers get 15% off your next merch order🟧 Founding Members get 20% off for lifeYou’ll get the link in your welcome email.GET DISCOUNTS BELOW! ENJOY!