"The Resilience of the East Asian Economies"

David Osman of IRF is joined by Paul Cavey, the Founder of East Asia Econ. ----more---- In this podcast, Paul Cavey of East Asia Econ explains that there are two terms of trades shocks playing through in East Asia at present, one positive, one negative. He points out that the A.I. boom and the strength of the global semiconductor sector have helped the stock markets of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan to reach new record highs recently, despite the Gulf war and the oil price shock. With respect to China, Paul discusses the evidence that suggests the Chinese economy is stabilising and should pick up once there’s a US-Iranian peace agreement and the oil market starts to normalise. In Japan, Paul says there are expectations that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates to combat the rise in inflationary pressures, thereby helping to support a stronger yen exchange rate, but this is not a done deal. In South Korea and Taiwan, Paul highlights how the growth-inflation trade off is influencing monetary policy and could result in a strengthening of the Korean won and the Taiwanese dollar versus the US dollar.   Paul Cavey has been living in East Asia for over twenty years – in Taipei, Beijing, Hong Kong and Tokyo. Paul is currently living in Taiwan and is fluent in Mandarin Chinese. He has been analysing the Economies of the East Asian region, with a particular focus on China, for over 25 years. Previously, Paul has been the Chief Regional Economist at several leading firms, notably the Economist Intelligence Unit, Macquarie Securities and Wellington Management. East Asia Econ provides high-quality research and thematic analysis of Macroeconomic and Market Issues in China, Japan, Korea and Taiwan.”