The Retail Media Illusion: Why Agentic Commerce Will Disrupt E-Commerce Sooner Than You Think

Last week, I stepped onto the stage at the Digital Shelf Summit here in Atlanta for a debate that’s been heating up across the industry: is agentic commerce an existential threat to e-commerce traffic? I took the “yes” side — boldly — and in this episode, I’m unpacking my full rebuttal to the idea that this is all just hype.I walk through where I agree with the skeptics (because yes, some of the data has been overstated), but more importantly, where I think the industry is missing the point entirely. This isn’t about transaction share: it’s about where decisions are being made. If AI shifts the moment of product discovery and comparison upstream, what happens to the retail media model as we know it? Let’s dig into the real implications before we all get too comfortable.This episode is sponsored by Mirakl AdsTimeline[00:00] – Setting the stage: My debate at Digital Shelf Summit and why this topic matters now[01:25] – Breaking down the “agentic commerce is a hallucination” argument[03:15] – The critical flaw: Measuring transactions instead of decision-making moments[04:30] – Why retail media depends on consumer behavior that may be disappearing[06:30] – New data reveals a shift toward direct-to-product-page shopping[08:00] – The hidden trade-off: Higher conversion, fewer ad impressions[10:30] – My final takeaway: The real hallucination isn’t disruption, it’s thinking nothing will changeLinks & ResourcesAndrew Lipsman's guest post on The AI Ad Economy: An Agentic Commerce Reality CheckSubscribe to Debra Aho Williamson's newsletter The AI Ad EconomySubscribe to Andrew Lipsman's newsletter Media, Ads + CommerceCriteo's 2026 COMMERCE & AI TREND REPORTAdobe's Quarterly AI Traffic Report (April 2026)Read my related articles:No Incentive To Sound The AlarmDark Search, Broken Signals, and What Comes Next for Retail MediaThe 3 Ways Agentic Commerce Could Destroy Retail MediaAgentic Shopping Poses An Existential Threat To Retail Media (Part 2)OpenAI is killing Instant Checkout. Don't dance on the grave of agentic shopping yet (The Drum)Loyalty data is becoming retail media’s strongest defense (The Drum)Retailers, here’s how your media network can still thrive in an AI-shopping era (The Drum)I'm keynoting at Xnurta's Signal to Scale summit on May 19 in Chicago. This is the room to be in if you work in retail media, care about what AI actually changes, and want to leave with something you can put to work. A full day focused on agentic AI, modern measurement, and the strategies the best teams are already building toward. Reserve your spot here.EMARKETER is teaming up again with Bain to survey retail media network leaders for a unique insight into the forces shaping the industry. The survey is intended for people working in-house on retail media teams, and it is global this year! The survey is also double-anonymized. The survey organizers will not know, nor are they trying to determine, which specific retail media network a respondent works for. The goal is to understand broader retail media trends, not attribute responses to individual companies. Please take the survey here. In Atlanta? Join the Commerce Media Happy Hour on Wednesday May 20! RSVP hereI am sharing comedy skits on Instagram about retail media! Follow along: @retailmediabreakfastclubSubscribe to Retail Media Breakfast Club's daily newsletterFollow Kiri Masters on LinkedIn