The Second Domino Just Fell. The Fed Meets Tomorrow. — Jun 15, 2026

The cascade is running. I mapped it two days ago and the dominoes are falling in order. But SocGen just told me the third one might not fall at all. That tension is today's episode. Not the oil crash. Not the deal. The question of whether the cascade reaches the Fed or dies at the second domino. I genuinely do not know the answer. And the fact that I don't know, after 150 episodes of tracking this conflict, is what I want to sit with this morning. Also carrying: SpaceX went public on Friday. The 18,712 BTC I covered on May 21 are now on the public balance sheet of the largest IPO in history. The quiet conviction became the biggest footnote in financial history. And the ETF hand came back, $85.8M. The recovery from the $4.4B exodus is starting. Day 786. All prior cycles post-peak. The cascade changes the macro headwind. It does not change the cycle math. I said that last night and it's still the truest thing I know.