The Sicilian Expedition

In this episode, Zoltan sits down again with macro strategist Martin Tixier to unpack a month full of major shifts across global markets. From rising geopolitical tensions and energy constraints to cracks forming in credit markets, the discussion explores whether we are entering a new phase of the cycle.Martin draws parallels to historical events like the Sicilian Expedition to frame today’s geopolitical and economic risks, while both speakers dive into the real implications for inflation, liquidity, and asset prices. They also explore what’s happening beneath the surface in private credit, why certain parts of the market are starting to show stress, and whether current valuations—especially in tech and AI—are sustainable.On the real estate side, Zoltan shares insights from across Europe, highlighting where opportunities still exist despite a prolonged downturn, and which regions and sectors are better positioned going forward. He also sees value in US multifamily market right now. The conversation also covers:The risk of a second wave of inflationWhy credit markets may be turningLiquidity signals from Bitcoin and IPO activityThe refinancing wall ahead in real estate and creditInvestment positioning in a late-cycle environmentThis is a deep-dive discussion for investors trying to navigate an increasingly complex macro landscape.