The Signal and The Noise - Nate Silver

Making good predictions is tough. We think we know more than we do and let emotions and biases creep in. How do some forecasters beat the odds? Our hosts, Nico and Sam, chat about the book "The Signal and the Noise" by Nate Silver exploring why predictions fail and uncovering practical insights.A little statistical training can go a long way! We geek out on Bayes' Theorem, discuss why poker develops useful reasoning skills, and tackle investing decisions using probabilities. Improving predictions requires tracking your results and having the courage to map what you don't know.We dissect Signal versus noise in forecasting explained and Understanding data prediction with Nate Silver, offering an analytical perspective on how to distinguish meaningful patterns from mere noise.If you want to enhance your critical thinking abilities and decision-making under uncertainty, tune in! We promise no boring academic lectures - just practical tips served with our signature blend of intellectual curiosity and humor.- - -Wiser Than YesterdayNico and Sam set out to read the world's best books, from philosophy to sci-fi, economics to who knows what.Wiser Pod WebsiteSam Webster Harris👋 LinkedIn - Sam Harris🧠 Psychology Pod - Growth Mindset Psychology🚀 New Pod - How to Change the WorldNicolas Vereecke👋 LinkedIn - Nico Vereecke🤖 AI world domination - Evil Plan Inc- - -How to Change the World: The History and Future of InnovationAvailable on all podcast players:SPOTIFY - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/1Fj3eFjEoAEKF5lWQxPJyT⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠APPLE - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/how-to-change-the-world-the-history-of-innovation/id1815282649⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠YOUTUBE - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/@HowToChangeTheWorldPodcast⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠- - -Chapters00:00 The Signal and The Noise02:25 Moneyball - Importance of prediction05:50 Poker as a Prediction Game07:44 Base Theorem11:57 Using poker to illustrate Bayes' theorem15:53 Frequent feedback improves forecast skill21:14 Overfitting - The problem of limited data and latching onto false patterns23:23 Europe's healthcare system vs. USA27:31 Improving prediction framework and minimising mistakes29:15 Nico's company33:10 Ratings & Reflection35:16 Send off Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.