The Small Business Layoff Signal That Precedes Recessions

Episode 44 of Recession Watch with Fexingo. Lucas and Luna examine a leading recession indicator hiding in plain sight: layoffs at small businesses. Using data from ADP and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, they show how firms with fewer than 50 employees tend to cut jobs months before larger companies, making this an early warning signal that has flashed before every downturn since 2001. With the unemployment rate at 4.3 percent and initial jobless claims ticking higher, this signal deserves attention. The hosts discuss why small business layoffs lead the cycle, how the current data compares to past recessions, and what it means for the broader economy. A focused, data-driven conversation for anyone trying to read the economic tea leaves in mid-2026. #SmallBusinessLayoffs #RecessionIndicators #ADPPayrollData #LaborMarket #EconomicCycles #JoblessClaims #UnemploymentRate #LeadingIndicators #RecessionWarning #BusinessFormation #LaborLeverage #ADPvsBLS #EmploymentData #RecessionWatch #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #MacroEconomics Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo