"The Sobering Up Phase": Why Ted Oakley Says A 15% Sell-Off Is Possible

Ted Oakley, Founder and Managing Partner at Oxbow Advisors, returns to Kitco News to discuss what he calls the market's "sobering up" phase. With jobless claims hitting winter highs and major tech stocks surrendering value, Oakley argues that we are witnessing a fundamental "changing of the guard." He explains why he believes the AI boom has turned "cash generating machines into capital investment machines," leveraging balance sheets to dangerous levels.Oakley breaks down the "bifurcated situation" where Wall Street bonuses hit records while the average consumer "can't borrow any more money." He details his strategy for navigating the "second year of a presidential term"—historically the most volatile—and explains why he reduced his positions in gold and silver during the recent rally. Oakley also shares where he is finding yield today, favoring sectors like natural gas pipelines and big pharma over the S&P 500.Recorded February 5 2026.Follow Jeremy Szafron on X: @JeremySzafron (https://twitter.com/JeremySzafron) Follow Kitco News on X: @KitcoNewsNOW (https://twitter.com/kitconewsnow) Follow Ted Oakley on X: @Oxbow_Advisors (https://twitter.com/Oxbow_Advisors)Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:54 Guest Introduction: Ted Oakley 01:19 Market Valuations and Economic Reality 04:55 AI Investments and Market Skepticism 07:04 Volatility in Tech and Defensive Assets 09:30 Investment Strategies and Market Predictions 11:00 Metals Market Analysis 16:23 Cash Position and Inflation Concerns 17:48 Private Credit and Equity Concerns 18:59 Energy Investment Insights 21:24 Natural Gas and Pipeline Opportunities 23:22 Federal Reserve and Interest Rates 24:35 Global Economic Stress Factors 26:04 Investment Strategies for Volatile Markets 30:25 Advice for Young Investors 33:33 Market Predictions for 2026#KitcoNews #TedOakley #StockMarket #Investing #Gold #Silver #Economy #Recession #Fed #WealthManagement__________________________________________________________________Like, share, and subscribe to Kitco News—and turn on alerts to stay current with expert interviews, market insights, and breaking news coverage. FOLLOW US:  X: https://x.com/kitconewsnow  Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/kitconews  Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/KitcoNews  LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/kitconewsListen to the PODCAST on🎧 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1My4WgtF0ZhUnxkxDLoJof🎧 Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/kitco-news/id1842889233🎧 All podcast episodes available here → https://kitconews.buzzsprout.comVisit: https://Kitco.com/ for live gold, silver, and crypto prices, the latest mining news, and macroeconomic insights.  Live gold price and chart: https://www.kitco.com/charts/goldLive silver price and chart: https://www.kitco.com/charts/silverLive crypto market data: https://www.kitco.com/price/cryptoLearn more about Kitco News: https://www.kitco.com/news/about/ For more information on advertising, sponsorship and marketing promotions – please visit our online media kit at: https://www.kitco.com/advertising  Disclaimer:  The videos are not intended to provide trading advice, and the views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. Kitco News, its anchors, producers, and reporters are not responsible in any way for the performance or actions of any sponsor, advertiser or affiliate of Kitco News. In no event will Kitco and its employees be held liable for any indirect, special, incidental, or consequential damages arising out of the use of the content in this video.