EPISODE · Jan 16, 2023 · 58 MIN
The Soft Landing “Blue Pill” Is Overpriced | Andy Constan
from Forward Guidance · host Blockworks
Andy Constan, veteran macro investor and founder of Damped Spring Macro Research, joins Jack to share his macro framework for 2023. Looking at rallying risk assets and an interest rate futures market that is pricing in over 200 basis points worth of cuts by the Fed, Constan argues that the market is assigning too high a probability to two “blue pill” scenarios - a soft landing or a Fed pivot. Constan says he is positioned to fade these two scenarios by being short everything - namely, stocks, bonds, and commodities. Constan explains why he is betting on red pill scenarios of either a severe recession or “higher-er for longer-er” interest rates. Filmed on January 11, 2022. __ This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:47) "I'm Short Everything" (08:24) Blue Pill Scenarios (Soft Landing Or Fed Pivot) Are Less Likely Than Market Is Pricing In (15:19) Betting Against Rate Cuts (23:06) Curve ad (24:08) Are Stocks Expensive Relative to Bonds? (30:51) Equity Risk Premium (ERP) (40:36) In China, Cash Is Trash (49:08) Views on Commodities (54:28) Can the Superb Macro Returns of 2022 Be Repeated? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
What this episode covers
Andy Constan, veteran macro investor and founder of Damped Spring Macro Research, joins Jack to share his macro framework for 2023. Looking at rallying risk assets and an interest rate futures market that is pricing in over 200 basis points worth of cuts by the Fed, Constan argues that the market is assigning too high a probability to two “blue pill” scenarios - a soft landing or a Fed pivot. Constan says he is positioned to fade these two scenarios by being short everything - namely, stocks, bonds, and commodities. Constan explains why he is betting on red pill scenarios of either a severe recession or “higher-er for longer-er” interest rates. Filmed on January 11, 2022. __ This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:47) "I'm Short Everything" (08:24) Blue Pill Scenarios (Soft Landing Or Fed Pivot) Are Less Likely Than Market Is Pricing In (15:19) Betting Against Rate Cuts (23:06) Curve ad (24:08) Are Stocks Expensive Relative to Bonds? (30:51) Equity Risk Premium (ERP) (40:36) In China, Cash Is Trash (49:08) Views on Commodities (54:28) Can the Superb Macro Returns of 2022 Be Repeated? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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The Soft Landing “Blue Pill” Is Overpriced | Andy Constan
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