The Statistical Illusion Inside Canada’s Housing Data

In 2025, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) reported nearly 260,000 housing starts, a figure that suggests real progress on the housing crisis. But a deeper look reveals a much more complicated and concerning reality.Most of the new supply is made up of small condos and apartments, not the family-sized homes people are looking for. Because housing starts are recorded late in the construction process, today’s data often reflects decisions made years ago, not current market conditions.Even more concerning, pre-construction sales are falling across multiple cities. This raises serious questions about what housing supply will look like in the years ahead.In this episode, we discuss:Why CMHC’s housing starts data can be misleadingThe difference between housing starts and real time market conditionsWhy Canada is building smaller homesThe composition effect changing housing trendsWhat falling pre construction sales signal for the futureChapters:00:00:00 Intro: The Housing Data Disconnect00:01:06 The Problem With CMHC Housing Starts Data00:04:06 How to Fix Misleading Housing Metrics00:05:14 The One-Size-Fits-All Data Problem00:05:49 Generational Shifts in Home Size00:07:05 Reality vs Data: Smaller Homes and Composition Effects00:08:14 The Collapse of Pre-Construction Sales00:09:12 Future Housing Market Outlook Research LinksCMHC Housing Report: https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/market-reports/housing-market/housing-market-outlook Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina MaddeauxProduced by Meredith MartinFunded by the Neptis Foundation https://neptis.org/