The Subsidy Cliff: What Happens When the Incentives Run Out

Ontario Rentals: It’s Not Too Much Supply—It’s Too Expensive (Absorption Crash, Policy Risk, and What to Buy)   Addy Saeed reviews Ontario’s multifamily market using CMHC, Rentals.ca, OSFI, and Urbanation signals, arguing the issue isn’t “too much rental housing” but too much new supply priced above what renters can afford. CMHC absorption at completion fell from 89% (May 2025) to 64% (May 2026), with completed unabsorbed inventory up 54% to 12,829 units nationally, while CMHC flags Ontario methodology as under review. Rentals.ca data shows 42% of renters target under $1,500 versus a $2,029 average asking rent, and 70% cite affordability as the top challenge. He discusses OSFI’s stability buffer cut as capacity (not lower rates), rent-control policy risk (including Ontario’s post-2018 exemption), rising GTHA vacancy in post-2000 buildings (5.4%), major long-lag approvals (Vaughan’s 9,950 units), Brad Lamb’s subsidy-dependent pivot to purpose-built rentals, and student housing as a niche with visa-cap demand risk, concluding oversupply risk is concentrated in levered, premium, incentive-dependent new builds while older below-replacement-cost stock is more insulated.   00:00 Absorption Shock Intro 00:57 CMHC Absorption Data 03:00 Renters Affordability Gap 04:54 OSFI Buffer Cut 06:16 Rent Control Policy Risk 08:21 Fitzrovia Lease Up Reality 09:40 Vaughan Mega Approval Lag 11:05 Brad Lamb Subsidy Cliff 13:13 Student Housing Exception 15:11 How Much Is Too Much 18:05 Wrap Up And Disclosures   About Your Hosts:  Addy Saeed: With over 20 years of experience in the real estate industry, I've navigated through the complexities of property investment, development, and management. My goal is to demystify real estate investing for our listeners.   Web Links Skool Community: https://www.skool.com/learn-invest-manage-3225/about Get access to all our tools at learninvestmanage.com