Welcome to the lid from me, the press. I'm Carrie Dan. You know what they say about assumptions. When you assume, say it with me, you make an ass out of you and me.
So let's talk today about assumptions, because as the dust is settling after Super Tuesday, you are probably pretty surprised by some of the results. We all are. In part, because of some of the assumptions everyone had going into the night. We are suddenly looking at a scenario where Joe Biden appears to be the likely front runner for the nomination.
That's just a few weeks after it. Sure as heck, look like Bernie Sanders was the one running away with it instead. If, by the way, you made that prediction, as recently as, I don't know, the Nevada caucuses, which were a week and a half ago, well, you should have stayed in Vegas. You probably could have made a lot of money.
This is an exercise in humility for everyone who has ever made an assumption about American politics. But the fun part about covering elections is that when they do make history, by definition, something happens that's never happened before. Which tends to make asses out of anyone who thought past would be prologue. So here's assumption number one that's being reevaluated today that endorsements can't really be all that earth-shattering.
When we all reflect back on the most important political endorsements of the last few cycles, there's really only a couple that stand out as really race-altering, probably Ted Kennedy endorsing Barack Obama. Add to that, though, a figure who is probably way less of a household name nationally, Representative Jim Clyburn of South Carolina. Without his endorsement, Joe Biden may never have thundered to victory in the Palmetto State and set himself up for a massive Super Tuesday consolidation of voters. When Clyburn made the endorsement, everyone said it was important.
But almost no one saw coming that it would essentially change the contours not only of the race in South Carolina, but the entire Super Tuesday landscape. Assumption number two. One thing you hear repeated a lot from political talking heads is that the most precious resource a campaign has is the candidate's time. So you got to pick the best places for the candidate to visit.
You got to hold rallies, get local media coverage, collect data about supporters, ground game is all important. It's the hallmark of a smart campaign. Turns out, Joe Biden, last night, won in several states he never even visited once. He also, by the way, won states where he never spent a dime or didn't even have an office.
Yes, ground game is obviously a huge deal in a state like Iowa or New Hampshire when you're trying to build name ID and get traction. But somewhere between, say, last Friday and this Tuesday, the national narrative and momentum was the only thing that mattered. Which brings me to assumption number three. That Iowa and New Hampshire have been and will always be huge deals.
Now, caveats here, we got a long way to go yet. But if Biden does become the nominee, it would be only the second time since 1972 that the nominee did not win in either Iowa and New Hampshire on the Democratic side. And historians kind of write off the one exception to that rule, which was in 1992 because Iowa wasn't really a contest and Iowa Senator Tom Harkin was a shoe in the whole time. So we're here now.
We're about a fourth of the way into the nominating process and there are miles to go before we sleep. Of course, there are plenty of chances for twists and turns and even more history to be made. So we will all try a little harder not to make too many assumptions. One assumption you can definitely make about all political journalists today, myself included, we all desperately need a good night's sleep.
That's a lid for us. If you'd like to hear more of this free audio briefing, you can always let us on your favorite podcast app.