The U Lab Brief 18 | SpaceX'S $85B IPO. What Happens Next?

SpaceX is expected to raise at least $85 billion in what could become the largest IPO in history. But the most interesting question is not what happens on the listing day. It is what business SpaceX actually becomes over the next decade. The bull case is that SpaceX is no longer just a launch company. Starlink could become a global communications platform. AI compute could become a multi-billion-dollar revenue engine through customers like Anthropic and Google. Grok could emerge as a serious competitor in the foundation model market. And the launches, lunar missions, and even future orbital infrastructure could create entirely new revenue streams. If that happens, today’s valuation may eventually look conservative. The bear case is that almost every pillar of that story faces execution risk. Starship is not yet proven at scale. Starlink is adding subscribers, but revenue per user is declining. Competition is increasing. AI compute is benefiting from today’s scarcity, but scarcity rarely lasts forever. And if AI models become more efficient, the economics of compute could change dramatically. Then there is Elon Musk. For two decades, SpaceX and Elon Musk have been almost impossible to separate. Which raises a deeper question: How much of SpaceX’s future value comes from its technology, infrastructure, and engineering capabilities—and how much comes from Musk’s ability to repeatedly identify and pursue opportunities that others do not see? The question isn’t whether SpaceX is valued correctly. The question is whether traditional valuation frameworks can keep up with a company that keeps changing its own category. Because the biggest opportunities may not be the markets SpaceX is in today, but the entirely new markets it could create tomorrow. I am Hurratul, and this is the U Lab Daily Brief on venture capital, technology and the future of innovation