The U Lab Brief 20 | If AI Isn't Taking Your Job, What Is?

Most people assume AI is making it harder for new college graduates to find jobs. A recent analysis highlighted by a16z points to a more surprising possibility. What if remote work is a bigger factor? Researchers found that unemployment among younger college graduates has deteriorated more than for older workers, with the gap appearing particularly pronounced in occupations that can be performed remotely. Even more interesting, one study found that once remote work is taken into account, much of the observed relationship between AI exposure and declining early-career hiring largely disappears. By 2025, occupations with higher work-from-home exposure showed nearly a 2 percentage point decline in the share of new hires, while the AI-controlled estimate remained close to zero. This does not mean AI has no impact. But it suggests we may be asking the wrong question. Perhaps the challenge is not simply whether AI is replacing entry-level workers. Perhaps the challenge is whether remote work is weakening the apprenticeship systems that historically helped develop them. If firms increasingly hire experienced talent who can contribute immediately, who will train the next generation of managers, operators, and founders? I'm Hurratul and this is The U Lab Daily Brief on venture capital, technology, and the future of innovation.