The Universe Called. It Says Your Theory of Change Is Cute.

If you’ve sensed a shift in Untangled of late, you’re not wrong. I’m writing a lot more about ‘complex systems.’ To name a few:* What even is a ‘complex system’ and how do you know if you’re in one.* How to act interdependently and do the next right thing in a complex system.* Why if/then theories of change that assume causality are bonkers — and how to map backward from the future.* How do you act amidst uncertainty — if you truly don’t know how your system will respond to your intervention, what do you do?* How should we think about goals in an uncertain world?* Here’s a fun diagnostic tool I developed to help you assess how your organization thinks, acts, and learns under complexity.I am obsessed with complex systems because the world is uncertain and unpredictable — and yet all of our strategies pretend otherwise. We crave certainty, so we build plans that presume causality, control, and predictability. We know in our gut that the systems we’re trying to change won’t sit still for our long-term plans, yet our instinct to cling to control amid uncertainty is too strong to resist.And honestly, in 2025, this shouldn’t be a hard sell. Politics, climate change, and AI are laughing at your five-year strategy decks.Complexity thinking helps us see this clearly — that systems are dynamic, nonlinear, and adaptive — but it, too, has blind spots. First, it lacks a theory of technology. The closest we get is Brian Arthur’s brilliant book, The Nature of Technology: What It Is and How It Evolves, which explains how technologies co-evolve with economic systems. (Give it a read, or check out write-up in Technically Social). But Arthur was focused on markets, not on social systems — not on how technology is entangled with people and power.That’s where my course comes in. I’m trying to offer frameworks and practices for creating change across difference, amid uncertainty, in tech-mediated environments — approaches that honor both complexity and the mutual shaping of people, power, and technology. (And yes, Cohort 5 of Systems Change for Tech & Society Leaders starts November 19.)Second, complexity is hard to talk about simply and make practical (that’s why my Playbook turned into a 200 page monstrosity!) Every time I use the words “complex” or “system,” I can feel the distance between me and whoever I’m talking to widen. I’ve been searching for thinkers who bridge that gap — who write about systems with both clarity and depth — and recently came across the brilliant work of Aarn Wennekers, who writes the great newsletter Super Cool & Hyper Critical (Subscribe if you haven’t yet!)After reading his essay, Systems Thinking Isn’t Enough Anymore, I reached out and invited him onto the podcast. I’m thrilled to share that conversation — one that digs into the mindsets and muscles leaders need to navigate uncertainty and constant change, the need to collapse old distinctions between strategy and operations, and what it really means to act when the ground beneath us keeps shifting. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit untangled.substack.com