The unsigned near-deal that lifted the index while IT sank

India and the United States are within touching distance of an interim trade deal, and shares rose on the hope of it on Wednesday. The Nifty 50 gained 0.59% to 24,005.85, helped by cheaper oil and a record June GST take. But nothing is signed, and a temporary US tariff on Indian goods expires 24 July. Underneath the green, IT fell alone to a three-year low, led by KPIT's warning of its first revenue decline in 23 quarters. We cover the two-speed session and what to watch next.The Lead is unsigned. India-US talks are called "very close" (about 1% left), but nothing is signed and the temporary 10% US tariff expires 24 July. Shares rose on the hope, not a done deal.A two-speed session. Nifty +0.59% to 24,005.85 with Realty (+3.58%), FMCG (+2.08%), Media (+2.07%) and Auto (+1.15%) firm, while IT alone fell 2.01% to a three-year low. Over five percentage points between best and worst.KPIT was the face of the IT weakness, down 16.98% after warning June-quarter dollar revenue will fall about 1% on the year, its first decline in 23 quarters, as some European carmakers pulled back.The tell: a weaker rupee should help dollar-earning IT, yet IT fell to a three-year low anyway, so the weakness is about demand, AI and high US rates, not the currency.Support underneath: cheaper crude (Hindustan Unilever flagged easing input costs), a record June GST take of about ₹1,94,812 cr (+13.9%), and strong June auto sales; the standing risk is a monsoon that closed June about 40% short of normal.Movers: Paisalo Digital +19.86% (promoters raised their stake to about 46.7%); RITES +14.02% (a fresh order worth about ₹175 cr).What to watch: monsoon revival around 3 July, US jobs data Friday 3 July, TCS results 9 July, Infosys 23 July, and the India-US trade deadline 24 July.General market commentary, not investment advice. The author is not a SEBI-registered Research Analyst; RA registration is in process and has not been granted. Nothing in this podcast should be construed as a research report under the SEBI Research Analyst Regulations, 2014. For investment advice tailored to your situation, consult a SEBI-registered Investment Adviser. Markets are risky; you may lose money; act with care. Narration is AI-generated using Sarvam TTS; script and analysis are by Nimit Mehra, CFA L3.Byline: Nimit Mehra, CFA L3. NISM XA/XB. SEBI RA-registration in process.AI-narration disclosure: Narration is AI-generated using Sarvam TTS; script and analysis are by Nimit Mehra.Key pointsDisclaimer