The Venezuelan Blueprint: Oil Control from Caracas to Tehran

In early January 2026, a major geopolitical shift occurred in South America following a United States military operation in Venezuela. This intervention resulted in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, who was subsequently transported to the United States to face trial. In the aftermath, the former Vice President, Delcy Rodríguez, assumed leadership in Caracas. However, the nature of this new government has been widely described as a protectorate, with its sovereignty largely ceded to Washington.The transition has placed Venezuela’s oil industry—the nation's primary economic engine—under direct U.S. control. Revenues from oil exports are no longer managed by Caracas but are held in U.S. accounts, with reports indicating that the Venezuelan budget now requires approval from U.S. officials before funds are released in installments. Despite the change in administration, many economic sanctions remain in effect, hindering production. Furthermore, the U.S. has restricted the sale of Venezuelan heavy crude to its traditional primary market, China, while other nations like India have shown limited interest in the specific type of oil available.Domestically, the Rodríguez administration has implemented significant changes. In February, an amnesty was granted to over 3,200 political prisoners, a move that distinguishes the current government from its predecessor despite its lack of electoral mandate. Economically, the country is undergoing neoliberal reforms in the mining and petroleum sectors, specifically structured to provide preferential treatment to U.S. companies.The regional landscape has also shifted dramatically. Immediately following the intervention, oil shipments to Cuba were terminated, and Cuban advisors were purged from the Venezuelan government and intelligence services. Most notably, the new Venezuelan government has remained silent regarding military actions against Iran, a former close ally.This "Venezuela scenario" is now being discussed as a potential blueprint for other resource-rich nations, specifically Iran. The strategy involves "decapitating" a regime—removing its top leadership—while maintaining the existing state and military apparatus under a cooperative figure. This approach seeks to ensure total control over oil resources with minimal long-term military commitment.However, the application of this model to Iran has faced significant hurdles. Unlike the relatively swift transition in Venezuela, the situation in Iran has become increasingly complex. While the U.S. administration promotes a "regime change light" to preserve the state structure, Israel has expressed a preference for the total annihilation of the Iranian regime. This divergence in goals has led to the targeted elimination of many potential candidates who might have served as a cooperative "successor," complicating the search for a local leader willing to facilitate the Venezuelan-style transition. Consequently, what was intended to be a "clean" operation has evolved into a far more intricate and volatile conflict.Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-world-between-us--6886561/support.