The War in Iran, a Benefit to Putin

While the world's attention has turned to the war with Iran, the war in Ukraine continues. Russia has seemingly kicked off its spring offensive, but a meaningful breakthrough remains unlikely. Moscow has increased the tempo of its operations, relying more heavily on mechanized and motorized assaults, an approach that is typical for this time of year. Yet last year's experience suggests limited prospects for success. Despite a similar surge last year, Russian forces achieved only marginal gains while incurring significant equipment losses, ultimately forcing Russian forces to relatively quickly return to smaller scale infiltration tactics. Meanwhile, the war in Iran will affect dynamics in Ukraine. The most pressing concern for Ukraine is its air and missile defense. Russia is expanding production of ballistic missiles and improving their effectiveness. Kyiv remains heavily dependent on U.S.-provided systems to intercept these threats, with no real viable alternative currently available. The United States is rapidly expending these resources in the Middle East. And the longer that conflict continues, the more it is likely to exacerbate Ukraine's vulnerability. Financially, Russia is also benefiting from the war with Iran. Higher oil prices and the easing of US sanctions are pumping higher revenue into Russia's coffers. Although Ukraine is taking bold steps to disrupt Russia's energy exports, a prolonged period of higher energy prices will, at a minimum, alleviate the economic strain that Moscow was feeling earlier this year. To discuss these dynamics and much more, Brussels Sprouts is very happy to welcome Elina Ribakova and Ambassador Bill Taylor to the show this week. Ambassador Bill Taylor is a distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center and former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine. Elina Ribakova is vice president for foreign policy at the Kyiv School of Economics and a non-resident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.