EPISODE · May 26, 2026 · 9 MIN
The War Risk Premium Is Reshaping Every Recession Model
from Recession Watch with Fexingo: Economic Cycles, Indicators, and What Slowdowns Mean · host Fexingo
In this episode of Recession Watch, Lucas and Luna examine how the Iran conflict is injecting a war risk premium into economic forecasts, making every recession model less reliable. They discuss the spike in oil prices, the consumer sentiment record low, and the VIX structure. Lucas explains why the Fed now faces a stagflation dilemma, and Luna notes the gap between headline GDP growth and consumer reality. The hosts explore what this means for investors, including the defensive rotation into sectors like energy and utilities. A must-listen for anyone trying to decode the current economy. #RecessionWatch #Economics #WarRiskPremium #IranConflict #OilPrices #ConsumerSentiment #VIX #Stagflation #FederalReserve #GDPGrowth #Inflation #DefensiveRotation #EnergySector #Utilities #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicIndicators #GeopoliticalRisk Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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The War Risk Premium Is Reshaping Every Recession Model
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