The Week Ahead: 13 – 17 July

Imogen Bachra looks ahead to a week shaped by renewed Middle East risk, key US inflation data, Chair Warsh’s testimony, UK political uncertainty, and the start of earnings season.Key takeawaysMarkets may need to price a higher geopolitical risk premium after renewed escalation in the Middle East.Oil prices, shipping costs, and physical flows through the Strait remain important indicators of how markets are assessing regional risk.US CPI will be a key focus, with expectations for a decline in overall consumer prices and lower year-over-year headline and core inflation rates.Chair Warsh’s testimony before Congress may offer limited forward guidance on rates, but could provide more detail on the Federal Reserve’s taskforces.UK markets are likely to focus on political developments, the next Labour leader, and the implications of the Chancellor appointment for borrowing and fiscal policy.Earnings season begins with financials, while the broader macro focus on hyperscalers and technology companies comes later in the month.Topics coveredMiddle East geopolitical risk and market risk premiumOil prices, shipping costs, and the StraitUS inflation and CPI dataFederal Reserve policy and Chair Warsh’s Congressional testimonyUK politics, fiscal discipline, borrowing risk, and the Chancellor appointmentRachel Reeves’ Mansion House speechCorporate earnings season, financials, hyperscalers, and technology companiesQuestions this episode helps answerWhat market themes matter most in the week commencing 13 July?